Analysis: Here's where Brighton and Hove Albion would sit in the Premier League table based on their 'expected goals' statistics

Expected goals, more familiarly known as xG, is a metric which helps to understand the quality of a team's attack. As James Tippett explains in his book The Expected Goals Philosophy: "Expected goals works by measuring the likelihood of each shot resulting in a goal. Each effort at goal which takes place in a match has a 'shot probability'. "For instance, a shot from 30 yards out through a crowd of players may only have a 2% chance of hitting the back of the net, giving it a value of 0.02 (xG). On the other hand a shot into an open goal from six yards out might have a 95% chance of being scored, resulting in a value of 0.95 (xG)." At the end of the match, each teams' shot probabilities are added up to give an expected goals scoreline, which gives an insight into both sides' performances instead of just the result of the game. As Tippett explains, many bad teams have won in the past by overcoming the odds, or in other words, got a bit lucky. He uses Greece in Euro 2004 and Liverpool in the 2005 Champions League Final as examples. I'm sure Brighton fans can think of a few games which they have felt hard done by - Man United this season springs to mind, the xG scoreline for that game was Brighton 2.98 - 1.58 United, but the result was 2-3. So let's take a look at Brighton's xG, xGA and xPTS. Brighton's xG Brighton have slightly outscored their expected goals so far this season. Their xG for all four league games, according to understat.com, is 7.46, but the Seagulls have scored eight, outperforming their xG by 0.54. This shows Brighton's xG has levelled it self out so far this campaign, as the Seagulls have scored some of the harder chances and fluffed some of the easier chances. Yves Bissouma and Leandro Trossard come to mind in the harder chances department, and Lewis Dunk and Trossard come to mind in the missed chances department. Trossard's goal from outside of the box on his weaker left foot against Chelsea had an expected goal value of 0.02 - he has massively outperformed his xG here. Bissouma's goal against Everton had an xG value of 0.08, which means a volley on the edge of the box like the Malian's is expected to go into the back of the net eight out of 100 times; that's why we call it a banger. Looking at the big chances Brighton have missed, Lewis Dunk's squandered header in the six yard box against Chelsea while the game was 1-2 had an xG of 0.5, meaning half of the time he is probably equalising here. Fine margins as they say. And Trossard recorded an overall xG of 0.89 against Man United, so nine times out of 10 he should have scored against the Red Devils, but he hit the woodwork three times and scored 0 goals. Brighton's xGA Have you come away from any of the games this season thinking Brighton played well, had the clearer chances but ended up on the end of an unfair scoreline? Here's why: xGA is expected goals against. Brighton have conceded 10 goals so far this season, but their xGA is 5.71, indicating Brighton have been unlucky, conceding nearly twice the amount of goals they were expected to. Taking into consideration Brighton have played three of the 'top teams' in the league in Chelsea, Man United and Everton, it is no surprise these sides have outscored their xG with the quality they possess. The xG scoreline between Brighton and Chelsea was Brighton 1.44-1.47 Chelsea, but Frank Lampard's men won 1-3, outscoring their xG by 50 per cent, with Kurt Zouma's and Reece James' goals both having an xG of 0.02, James with a wonder goal and Zouma with a fortunate deflected effort. And against Everton, the xG scoreline was Everton 2.34-1.17 Brighton, but Everton won 4-2. James Rodriguez's xG was 1.20 but he scored two. Now you might be thinking Rodriguez's efforts were relatively simple: in space, at the back post with a tap in. But xG takes into account the type of assist, which foot the effort is taken on, the type of shot and the area of the pitch. Rodriguez was in the box in a good area, so this would have boosted his xG, but both of his efforts were taken on the half volley from a cross, which xG would rank as more difficult than if the ball was dead or passed along the ground. And the final caveat is Rodriguez took his second goal on his weaker right foot, which lowers his xG. Rodriguez's quality has helped him outperform his xG here, to Brighton's misfortune. Brighton's xPTS xPTS is expected points. If Brighton scored the goals they were expected to score and, moreso, conceded the goals they were expected to concede, they would be on 6.86 points, which would put them in and around the ninth or tenth positions, instead of 15th, where they currently sit on three points This is the second highest xPTS deficit in the league at the moment, which indicates Brighton are putting in the performances but are not getting the rub of the green in terms of results. But that isn't football, things go for and against a team, I know. But these statistics are a good indicator as to how well Brighton are playing and helps to predict where their performances measure up in the league and not just the results. For a video explanation of xG and examples, watch the YouTube video in this article (above). Follow this writer on Twitter @LoganMacLeod8