Grand National: Supercomputer’s verdict on Sussex trainer Moore’s chance of Aintree prize

The Grosvenor Sport Grand National SuperComputer has given Sussex trainer Gary Moore a 3.1% chance of winning the iconic race with his runner Nassalam, with defending champion Corach Rambler a 13% chance of winning and defending his title.
By Racing reporter
Published 11th Apr 2024, 18:29 BST

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Statisticians have written the code using a variety of factors to produce as accurate a model as possible, with the race then being run 1,000 times to ensure accuracy and rule out anomalous results.

The model utilises the odds provided by bookmakers and the Racing Post rating for each horse in the race to ascertain the probability of each horse winning or finishing in any given position.

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To accommodate uncertainties such as weather conditions and the inherent randomness present in all sports, a certain degree of chance has been integrated into the model.

Nassalam, ridden by Caoilin Quinn, wins The Coral Welsh Grand National Handicap Chase at Chepstow last December | Photo: David Davies/PA WireNassalam, ridden by Caoilin Quinn, wins The Coral Welsh Grand National Handicap Chase at Chepstow last December | Photo: David Davies/PA Wire
Nassalam, ridden by Caoilin Quinn, wins The Coral Welsh Grand National Handicap Chase at Chepstow last December | Photo: David Davies/PA Wire

The 2023 winner Corach Rambler has been given a 13% chance of winning, ahead of I Am Maximus at 9.3% and Meetingofthewaters at 7% chance of winning. 2022 winner Noble Yeats has just a 2.6% chance of victory.

A spokesperson for Grosvenor Sport said: “It is extremely rare for a horse to win back-to-back Grand National titles due to the handicapping system, but the SuperComputer has factored in the conditions for the spectacle.

“Reports suggest the track at Aintree will be battered once again by heavy rain, with the course currently soft, heavy in places and in danger of turning into a real slog. Under the guidance of trainer Lucinda Russell, we expect the Corach Rambler to deliver once again.”

Grand National odds - via Betfair:

Corach Rambler 5/1

I Am Maximus 7/1

Meetingofthewaters 8/1

Vanillier 9/1

Panda Boy 10/1

Kittys Light 11/1

Mr Incredible 12/1

Mahler Mission, Limerick Lace 14/1

Nassalam, Minella Indo 16/1

Noble Yeats, Delta Work 20/1

Capodanno, Latenightpass, Chemical Energy, Galia Des Liteaux 25/1

33/1 bar

Related topics:Grand National Sussex

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